Week 15 Predictions – Indecision Will Cost Me

The guy who did this is going to make or break my fantasy season.

I don’t have anything too in-depth to write about this week, so I decided to rant about my fantasy football matchup and the fact that my scenario is playing out exactly like you wouldn’t want it to play out.

I’m sitting here about four hours before kickoff of Thursday night’s San Francisco-San Diego game deciding what to do with the flex position in my lineup.

First, a little background that you undoubtedly couldn’t care less about.

My league is a keeper league where you are allowed to keep up to three players from one year to the next. You lose a draft pick for two of those guys, though, making the keeper decisions a little difficult. Here’s how it works.

The guy who keep in the highest round you keep for free (so if you keep your first round pick from the year ago, you get that for free), but then if you keep the second round guy, you lose that draft pick.

I ended up keeping Randy Moss for free (round 2), then Tony Romo (round 4) and Austin Collie (round 17).

Pretty miserable, eh?

I started out poorly, jumping out to a 1-3-1 start and then a 2-4-1 start. Season looked pretty bleak from that point.

Well, I traded Moss (along with Shonn Greene) the week before New England did and got Reggie Wayne and Dez Bryant out of him. That worked out in my favor.

Then, after Romo went down, I traded Steve Smith (Carolina) and Felix Jones for Joe Flacco, and picked up Matt Cassel, so my quarterback situation wasn’t looked too poorly either.

I also drafted wisely. Since I didn’t keep any running backs and the best ones were off the board before the draft even began (Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Steven Jackson, Ray Rice, etc), I decided to stock up on running backs in hopes that at least one or two would pan out.

I drafted Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles, Justin Forsett and Shonn Greene.

Worked out pretty well.

So after my miserable start, my crafty trading and making up for injuries saw me rattle off a six week winning streak and grab the No. 2 seed in the playoffs, which included a first round bye.

That brings me to the present and why I’m writing all of this (besides to brag about my fantasy team).

I’m matched up against the only person in the league who can match me punch for punch in trash talking, my friend Andrew.

Andrew also happens to be the last person to beat me this season, as he won 97-80 in week 7 (the same week Romo got hurt).

Andrew had his No. 1 quarterback, Aaron Rodgers, go down last week and still managed to win thanks to an awesome performance by Andre Johnson. Now, he’s starting Jon Kitna, who is STILL projected to outscore whoever I start between Cassel and Flacco.

Our teams are pretty even, which is why I’ve been beating myself up all week over who to put in my starting lineup.

My two running backs are set (Foster and Charles). I have Wayne at WR1 and my WR2 will either be Danny Amendola or Collie (not ideal, I know, but I have to salvage something since Bryant got hurt).

Flex is where I’m hurting. I have Mike Tolbert going tonight against San Francisco and LeGarrette Blount going Sunday against Detroit. Usually, I don’t do much research into who to start, instead going with my gut. But I can’t, for the life of me, figure out who to start this week.

I’ve gone back and forth countless times and it’s driving me insane. What makes it worse is that I have to decide today because Tolbert plays tonight (I hate the Thursday night games).

Indecision always makes you end up making the wrong decision. I have no theory or scientific data to prove that. I just believe it. I’m going to end up losing to a guy starting Jon Kitna because I made the wrong decision between Tolbert and Blount.

Right now, I have Blount in my lineup. I have about four hours to decide to change it or not.

I hate fantasy football.

Week 15 predictions:

San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers (-10)
Regardless of the decision I make with my lineup, I don’t care how this game ends up as long as it works out in my favor. Chargers to win, 49ers to beat points.

Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Has a 1-12 team ever been favored before in the history of the NFL? THAT’S how bad the Cardinals are. Panthers to win and cover.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5)
I have no idea how to pick this game. Chad Henne can suck it. Did I mention he was my backup to Romo at the start of the season? Dolphins to win, Bills to beat points.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5)
Not only are the 1-12 Panthers favored this week, but so are the 2-11 Bengals! And they’re going to win, too. Bengals to win and cover.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)
Some of the games this week are real stinkers. Thank goodness there are a couple of late games that are intriguing. Bucs to win, Lions to beat spread.

Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-1.5)
At this point, the Titans should not be favored against anyone. Texans to win outright.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
This is the week where the Colts take control of this division. They’re still your AFC South champs. Colts to win and cover.

Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at St. Louis Rams
Teams from the West divisions shouldn’t be allowed to play each other. Chiefs to win and cover.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-1)
Everybody’s sleeping on the Saints… Saints to win outright.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-3)
Home field or not, I can’t really figure out why the Giants are favored in this game. The Packers need New York to lose this game. Eagles to win outright.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Vegas must really, really dislike Washington. Redskins to win outright.

Atlanta Falcons (-7) at Seattle Seahawks
Seattle might be so bad at this point that the mystic of Qwest Field doesn’t matter in the slightest bit. Falcons to win and cover.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-7)
Seriously, these AFC and NFC West teams are SO boring. I could care less about this game. It doesn’t even give me any playoff implications. Raiders to win, Broncos to beat spread.

New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
The Jets could be in danger of collapsing down the stretch and missing the playoffs. Wouldn’t that be something? Steelers to win, Jets to beat spread.

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (no line)
This game doesn’t have a line because of Aaron Rodgers’ status. I don’t think he plays. If he does, I’ll be a homer and pick the Packers, but since he likely won’t, I guess I have to pick the Patriots to win outright.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (no line)
I GUESS this game has no line because of the status of Minnesota’s quarterbacks, as well as the status of where the hell this game is going to be played. Either way, first the Bears get Tyler Thigpen, now they get some Webb fellow or Patrick freakin’ Ramsey. Kill me. Bears to win outright.

Record

Week 14 – 12-4 (9-7 against spread)
Overall:
125-81 (104-99-3 against spread)

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